ÖBB Annual Report 2025

Group Management Report 46 Österreichische Bundesbahnen-Holding Aktiengesellschaft Consolidated Financial Statements | Group Management Report 3 However, inflation in the USA is likely to rise from next year as a result of the tariffs, which could further worsen the outlook for demand in particular and so for European foreign trade. 6 Growth in Europe followed two different trajectories in 2025. While the major eurozone economies – Germany, France and Italy – tended to stagnate, growth was much more dynamic in Eastern Europe in particular. Overall, EU-wide GDP increased by 1.4%, while GDP in the eurozone rose by 1.3%. In view of the economic weakness in the core countries, growth in the eurozone was driven in particular by the disproportionately high growth in Ireland. 7 This is mainly due to direct investments by US technology and pharmaceutical companies, which continue to use Ireland as a hub for accessing the EU. After overcoming the energy and supply chain crisis, European industry was once again unable to build on any positive impetus from outside in 2025. In addition to making European products more expensive for the US market, the US tariff policy is also leading to increased competition with China. As in Trump’s first term of office, China is once again channeling some of its surpluses, particularly of steel, back into the EU. The EU has responded accordingly with import duties on Chinese goods, particularly electric cars and steel, with the aim of counteracting a possible drop in steel prices, as was the case in 2019. 8 At the same time, the European economy and industry continue to suffer from structural problems. These include, above all, a lack of innovation as well as high costs and dependencies on central technologies and raw materials. These cannot be solved in one fell swoop with subsidies, as the most recent examples of expensive misallocations in technologies ranging from batteries and photovoltaics to electric vehicles show. Development of container handling and inflation Container handling at major seaports Inflation RWI-ISL Index 2015 = 100 monthly in % compared to the same month of the prior year Sources: RWI (Leibniz Institute for Economic Research) / ISL (Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics), Eurostat. As a result of Europe’s weak growth and the USA’s “America First” stance, a new world order is inexorably emerging. China is increasingly decoupling itself from the West by focusing on new sales markets in Asia and industrial independence. On the one hand, this reduces the need for technology imports and therefore trade potential for European companies. On the other, the shift in sales strategy away from consumer goods toward higher-value intermediate goods makes Chinese products indispensable in many supply chains. 9 The outlook for 2026 therefore remains cautious from an EU perspective. In particular, the USA’s tariff policy and increasingly aggressive foreign policy, as well as the general geopolitical uncertainty, represent a constant sword of Damocles. Positive economic impetus could, however, come from the free trade agreement with the Mercosur countries, which was adopted by the EU Council at the start of 2026 after years of negotiations – provided it is applied provisionally – as well as from the expansive rearmament policy in Europe. 10 6 IHS. 7 European Commission. 8 Handelsblatt. 9 ZDF; Fokus. 10 Orf.at, Profil, European Commission. 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2023 2024 2025 Gesamt Häfen ohne China Chinesische Häfen europ. Nordhäfen 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2023 2024 2025 Austria Eurozone Total Ports without China Chine e ports Eur. northern ports | MR3