ÖBB Annual Report 2023

Group Management Report 52 Österreichische Bundesbahnen-Holding Aktiengesellschaft Consolidated Financial Statements | Group Management Report 7 The economic situation in the countries of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe is also extremely heterogeneous. As the industrial economy cooled, countries such as the Czech Republic and Hungary slipped into recession. Touristic nations such as Greece and Croatia, on the other hand, benefited from robust travel behaviour. Countries in the RCG core markets are expected to return to consistently positive growth rates in 2024, in some cases exceeding 2.0%. Overall, the positive development in South Eastern Europe remains a ray of hope for Austria’s economy. 11 Europe’s public finances are under strain – in two respects. On the expenditure side, the aid programmes in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy price crisis were very costly, which has led to high budget deficits in recent years. High inflation has conversely led to a falling debt ratio. At approx. 89.6% of GDP, the gross debt of eurozone countries in 2023 was slightly below the previous year’s figure, but still significantly higher than in 2019. The ongoing costs of servicing the debt have also spiralled due to the rise in interest rates. This severely restricts the scope for economic policy in the medium term. 12 The medium-term outlook for the European economy is stable. The EU Commission forecast assumes that the restrictive central bank policy will not fail to have the desired effect and that the currently high inflation rates will not last. Thanks to the continued robust labour market and rising real incomes, real economic growth of over 1% is possible in the EU in 2024. The numerous global geopolitical tensions and crises are also a major risk factor here. In addition, extreme weather situations – such as the heatwave in southern Italy in July 2023 or the floods in Slovenia and southern Austria in August 2023 – also pose a growing climatic risk to economic development. 13 Austrian economic development The phase of rapid recovery following the pandemic-related slump of the COVID-19 years came to an abrupt end in 2023. GDP fell by 0.8% in 2023 following an increase of 4.8% in 2022. There were already signs of an economic slowdown in Austria at the end of 2022 due to high inflation rates and a weakening of the global economic and trade environment. 14 The Austrian economy however still proved to be comparatively resilient at the start of the year, however, thanks to full order books in industry and positive contributions to growth from net exports and private consumption. In the first quarter of 2023, GDP growth of 1.9% was still achieved compared to the same period of the previous year. In the second quarter of 2023, however, the trend turned clearly negative. Key data and forecasts for the economic situation in Austria Parameter Unit 2022 2023 2024 Gross domestic product, real Change in % 4.8 -0.8 0.9 Industrial production 6.8 -0.6 -0.3 Goods exports 7.1 1.9 2.2 Goods imports 5.1 -2.8 2.5 Gross capital investment, real 0.1 -2.0 -1.0 Private consumer spending, real 5.7 0.0 1.6 Inflation rate (consumer prices) 8.6 7.8 4.0 Maastricht deficit in % of the GDP -3.5 -2.3 -2.4 Unemployment rate in % of the labour force 6.3 6.4 6.4 Source: Statistik Austria, WIFO, Oxford Economics. 11 WIIW, Oxford Economics. 12 IMF, Handelsblatt. 13 European Commission. 14 OeNB. | MR7