ÖBB Annual Report 2023

49 Group Management Report Österreichische Bundesbahnen-Holding Aktiengesellschaft Consolidated Financial Statements | Group Management Report 4 Global economic situation (Change in % compared to the prior year) Key figures and forecasts for global economic performance 2022 2023 2024 Gross domestic product, real Eurozone 3.3 0.7 1.2 USA 2.1 2.1 1.5 China 3.0 5.0 4.2 World trade 3.5 3.0 2.9 Global trade (goods and services), real 5.1 0.9 3.5 Value added in industrial production, real 2.4 1.4 2.4 Consumer prices Industrialised countries 5.4 4.0 2.8 Developing countries / Emerging markets 9.8 8.5 7.8 Crude oil price (in USD) 39.2 -16.5 -0.7 Commodity price (in USD) 7.9 -6.3 -2.7 Source: IWF, Oxford Economics. A cornerstone of the global economy was growth in the USA, which was stronger than expected at 2.1%. A ‘shutdown’ of the administration, as a result of the debt ceiling being reached in the first half of 2023, was avoided. The early tightening of monetary policy compared to the eurozone led to a reduction in inflation without the USA slipping into recession. The unemployment rate remained at a very low level of 3.7% in December 2023, with the acute labour shortage, which had caused strong price pressure in 2022, easing. 2 In contrast, the Chinese economy performed less positively last year. Following the insolvency of the Evergrande Group in August 2023, the property industry, previously one of the main drivers of growth in China, was on a downward spiral. Deflationary trends and high youth unemployment are dampening the outlook, and consumer confidence in the Chinese economy has fallen sharply. Annual growth rates of over 6.0%, which were common before the pandemic, seem unattainable in the medium term. This also has implications for the development of trade in goods with the Far East. 3 International trade in goods was largely characterised by an easing of the situation in 2023. After the turbulent years of the pandemic, maritime trade returned to normal over the course of the year. The CCFI index, which measures container freight rates to and from China, averaged 933 index points at the end of the month in 2023 – a drop of 65.4% compared to 2022. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) was below or marginally above 0 between February and the end of 2023, indicating no significant supply chain disruptions in global trade. 4 However, attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea at the end of 2023 led to large-scale diversions and another significant increase in spot rates. 5 2 FRED, J.P.Morgan. 3 FRED, der Standard, DW. 4 New York Fed. 5 The Press MR4 |