ÖBB Annual Report 2023

Group Management Report 50 Österreichische Bundesbahnen-Holding Aktiengesellschaft Consolidated Financial Statements | Group Management Report 5 Development of transport prices and stock market indices Price development for raw material and container shipments DAX and Dow Jones (index 2020=100) Baltic Dry and CCFI-Indizes (index points) Sources: investing.com , container-news, finanzen.at . Energy market developments were turbulent in 2023. Overall, there was an easing of the situation, particularly with regard to gas prices. However, the OPEC+ cartel’s commitment to reduce production volumes caused prices on the oil market to rise again significantly in the meantime. After a relatively low oil price (Brent) of between USD 70 and 80 per barrel in June 2023, prices rose to over USD 95 by the end of the third quarter of 2023. By the end of the year, however, despite the unrest in the Middle East, the price had fallen again to below USD 80 per barrel. The global price of natural gas per MMBtu (million British thermal units) ranged from just under USD 10 in summer 2023 to USD 20 at the end of 2023. Although the price was therefore significantly higher than the level before 2022, there is also a clear easing of the situation compared to the natural gas crisis year 2022 – with interim highs of up to USD 70. 6 The financial markets were largely unaffected by the turbulent developments in the real economy. Real interest rates, as a result of the high inflation rates, remained negative despite the in part significant interest rate steps taken by the central banks. The losses of the most important share indices in the wake of the Ukraine crisis were more than recouped in 2023. Positive prospects for the global economy and interest rates as well as a booming technology sector in America led to an all-time high for the DAX and Dow Jones in December 2023. 7 The fiscal position of many countries remains tense. Strong inflation caused significantly reduced debt ratios in many countries. Key interest rates however markedly increase debt servicing costs in the medium term. The global government debt ratio is trending towards just under 10.0% of GDP by 2025. The IMF estimates that low- and middle-income countries need to spend an average of 10.0% of their tax base on interest by 2027. Added to this are the challenges of the green transformation, which requires major investment worldwide. The outlook for the near future is cautiously positive. The goal of a “soft landing”, in which inflation falls to normal levels without the global economy slipping into recession, appears to have been achieved. Downside risks for the coming years originate primarily from China. The risk of a 2008-style financial crisis remains. Such an event would have far-reaching effects on global demand for goods. In addition, the tense geopolitical situation (war in Ukraine, China’s hegemonic endeavours, trouble spots in the Middle East) has once again increased the risk of commodity price fluctuations. Should these risks not materialise, the global economy is set for growth. 6 Tagesschau. 7 FAZ, CBS. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 2022 2023 Baltic Dry CCFI 95 105 115 125 135 145 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 Dow Jones DAX | MR5